Memorex Releasing Sub-$200 Blu-ray Player

The magic $200 price point for a Blu-ray player appears to be broken at CES by none other than Memorex. For the first time, a Profile 2.0 player will have a LIST price of under $200; which usually corresponds to a real-world price of around $149 or even less, although we will have to wait and see on that. Since this is a breakthrough price for a 2.0 player, retailers may just keep the margin and leave it at that $199 price point.
Although positioning it as a budget player, Memorex is including some solid features:

• Profile 2.0
• Onboard Dolby TrueHD and DTS-HD High Resolution decoding
• SD card slot and USB port

Will consumers respond as they did in 2000, when the first sub-$200 DVD player was released, paving the way for the near-universal adoption of DVD? Or, with Blu-ray movies still hovering at the $30 range, will they simply shrug and continue happily with DVD?
Only time will tell.

Samsung Says Blu-Ray Has 5 years Left

Did I actually just read this?!? Yes, I did. Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK, told UK tech blog Pocket-lint he sees 5 years left for the Blu-ray Disc format.

"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK told Pocket-lint in an interview.
Hoping to capitalise before it's too late, Griffiths believes that 2008 is the format's year.

"It's going to be huge", he told Pocket-lint. "We are heavily back-ordered at the moment."

Citing online rental sites like LoveFilm's adoption of Blu-ray titles, the move to offer cheaper players and a now clear path to adoption following the Blu-ray HD DVD battle, Griffith says the format will be a winner, although not for long.

Interesting that even upper management at Blu-ray supporting companies see a limited life for the format. So Blu-ray will be a 'winner' for the next 5 years or so before internet-connected TVs take over and content will be streamed...
I see Blu-ray turning out to be the Laserdisc of the '00 decade. Yes, it already has many times the household penetration than Laser ever had, mostly due to the PS3 console. But only people that really care about picture/sound quality are currently buying standalone Blu-ray players and paying the premium to buy Blu-ray movies. At the risk of beating a dead horse, DVD quality is simply good enough for the vast majority of people, even if they have an HDTV. There simply will not be enough time for Blu-ray to become the dominant format before something else enters the market, whether that be another physical format or direct streaming to your TV.

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Consumers Shun Blu-ray Players

A recent survey released by ABI Research gaging consumer interest in the Blu-ray Disc format states only 23% of consumers are likely to buy one and 40% said the picture quality was only "somewhat better" than DVD. The lukewarm response to Blu-ray shows that most consumers don't see enough of a benefit to switch to Blu-ray.

In a survey of 1,000 consumers, ABI Research found more than half of the respondents citing "other priorities" as their reason for having no plans to purchase a Blu-ray player. The 23% likely to buy one said they wouldn't until sometime next year.
In the case of movies in the Blu-ray format, more than half of the respondents said it was "much better" than standard DVD, but another 40% said it was only "somewhat better." Most of the respondents said they were very satisfied with the performance of standard DVD players.

In other news, Sony, evidently living in an alternate reality, is stating in just over 2 years, Blu-ray will outsell DVD. The only way this will happen is if players reach the under $200 price point and Blu-ray movies cost the same or almost the same as DVDs. Neither looks to happen this year.

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Consumers Not Buying Blu-Ray Despite Format Win

A Blu-ray win over HD-DVD in the bloody format war hasn't translated into a sales victory for the next generation DVD technology. A recent study by the NPD Group has shown that Blu-ray sales only increased by 2 percent from February to March and that Blu-ray sales dropped 40 percent from January to February.
I think three things are contributing to this:

• Hardware is still expensive compared to DVD. In a slowing economy where the average person is starting to feel the pinch at the gas pump as well as the grocery store, spending $400 on a new disc player (not to mention the more expensive discs) is just not on the agenda for a lot of people.

• Many can't tell the difference. Videophiles aside, many consumers are hard pressed to tell a substantial difference between upconverted DVD from a $40 player correctly connected to the display and true HD material from Blu-ray, especially from across the living room.

• It's too soon. Many consumers feel they 'just' upgraded to the DVD format, though for some that was more than a decade ago, and are not in haste to start replacing their video collections like they did with DVD. Add to this the expense of upgrading to a new flat panel HDTV, which many have recently done or are doing this year (whether they need to or not) in light of the February 2009 digital transition, and the consumer is hesitant to spend another $400 + discs in light of the previous two arguments.
  

At any rate, I don't see Blu-ray overtaking DVD as the dominant format at any time in the foreseeable future.

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Netflix To Charge More For Blu-ray

Yesterday Netflix said it plans to impose a "modest" fee increase to rent Blu-ray discs. The rates would increase later this year which will be used to help offset rising costs as it expands its library to include more movies on the Blu-ray format.
A lot of people are complaining about this, but it makes financial sense. The wholesale cost of Blu-ray Disc is about 27% higher than standard DVD, probably more than that when you consider the massive amount of DVDs Netflix must purchase directly from the studios at a discount. Whether you rent in a store or (legally) download them, HD movies cost more to buy or rent, generally at a 25% premium over standard def. It's simply a matter of fact that customers who want to watch HD media finance any company's expansion into that format.

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Blockbuster Gets Behind Blu-ray Big Time

Beginning this week, in addition to the standard DVDs lining its shelves, Blockbuster will be rolling out Blu-ray movies, for rent and sale in all of its corporate stores in the U.S. and Canada. In addition, Blockbuster will be installing Blu-ray kiosks in the center of its stores. Featuring a 42-inch HDTV with movies playing on a PS3, the kiosks will enable customers to take a look at high definition movie playback as well as highlight the fact that PS3s play Blu-ray movies. This week Blockbuster also began offering online subscribers a Blu-ray preference setting so they can automatically indicate that they want to receive all available movies in that format.
David Podeschi, Blockbuster SVP, Merchandising, Distribution and Logistics:

"Blockbuster was the first national retailer to accurately recognize and react to consumers' preference for this format when we added Blu-ray discs to a large percentage of our stores last summer. Now, with this national rollout, we believe Blockbuster is perfectly positioned to drive consumer adoption of this next generation DVD format and to become the customer's headquarters when it comes to renting or buying Blu-ray movies, whether in-store or online."

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Dell Offers $879 Blu-ray Laptop

Dell has added Blu-ray drives to its colorful line of Inspiron 1525 line of notebook computers. I just went to the Dell site and it seems you can already order an Inspiron 1535 15" laptop with a Blu-ray Disc Combo (DVD+/-RW + BD-ROM) drive for as little as $879.
They sell this colorful line of laptops for as little as $499. (For that price you get a Celeron processor with Vista Home Basic, but it will be pretty.) Too bad they don't offer a Blu-ray drive with the Ubuntu systems. I doubt that Blu-ray's DRM would be compatible with Ubuntu.
This makes a compelling choice for anyone considering diving into the Blu-ray market right now; especially if you were also in the market for a computer. Set top Blu-ray players still start at $399. These laptops have HDMI ports so you could hook them right up to your main living room system. There are concerns about battery life when using Blu-ray, so if you use the laptop as your Blu-ray player, you would need to plug it into AC power. Since it is a PC, you should also be able to upgrade the Blu-ray firmware to Profile 2.0, which should be a major consideration if you are thinking about a stand alone Blu-ray player right now.

Final Days Of HD-DVD?

Things again aren't looking too good for HD-DVD. News sites and blog have been posting rumors since yesterday regarding Toshiba's plans to discontinue the format. Even Thomas K Arnold over at Home Media Retailing seems to think this will happen.
Poor Jodi Sally from Toshiba included this response regarding the 'death watch.'

“Given the market developments in the past month, Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players."

Players and movies are being hugely discounted at several retailers, including Amazon, where they are offering 150 HD-DVD movies at 50% off.
Just this morning, it became known that Wal-Mart has decided to discontinue HD-DVD and carry Blu-ray exclusively in it's stores by June of this year, according to it's official blog.
This may be a final nail in the coffin for HD-DVD, as it would represent that practically all brick and mortar retailers are now firmly behind the Blu-ray format.

Best Buy To 'Recommend' Blu-Ray

Wow, two HD format related news items today. In a clear response to this morning's Netflix announcement, Best Buy had a little press release of their own this afternoon.

Best Buy Co Inc, the largest U.S. consumer electronics chain, said on Monday it will recommend that consumers choose Sony Corp's Blu-ray high-definition video format.
The decision gives Sony yet another victory in the battle with Toshiba Corp's HD DVD to be the high-definition DVD format of choice.
Earlier on Monday, online video rental company Netflix Inc said it would exclusively stock Blu-ray DVDs after some of the world's biggest movie studios decided in favor of that format.
Best Buy said it believes consumers will benefit from the choice of one HD DVD format.
"Because we believe that Blu-ray is fast emerging as that single format, we have decided to focus on Blu-ray products," Brian Dunn, Best Buy's president and chief operating officer, said in a statement.
Best Buy will prominently feature Blu-ray hardware and software beginning in March, but will also carry an assortment of HD DVD products for customers who want those, Best Buy said.

Ok...thanks for the recommendation, Best Buy. Don't you love it when major corporations are looking out for you? So, what's next, Blockbuster Online announcing that they will also drop HD-DVD from it's rental choices? That would just about be the last straw for mainstream consumer availability for HD-DVD.
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Blu-ray Hardware Sales Hit 93% Share

Research group NPD has released HD format players sales figures for the first two weeks of January. As you can see from the graph below, after the January 4 pre-CES Warner announcement Blu-ray player sales went from just over half the market share of HD players sold to 93% the following week. In week two of January, 21,770 Blu-ray players were sold vs. 1,758 HD-DVD players. These figures are for stand alone players only, video game consoles not included.
What's next? Now Video Business is reporting on retailers that are planning to de-emphasize HD-DVD in stores in favor of Blu-ray as buyers for the chains begin to scale back HD-DVD purchasing. Even though some retailers like Best Buy, Amazon, DVDEmpire and local home theater giant Bjorn's evidently are not ready to change their product mix just yet, they will pretty much have to, since as of June 70% of Hollywood content will be on Blu-ray only.

Thousands Ask Warner To Save HD-DVD

In the wake of the big companies shifting their support around for either one HD format or another, grassroots efforts are starting to show up on the web.
In an effort to communicate to Warner Bros. "that the consumer has not 'clearly' chosen Blu-Ray," someone started a petition at Petition Online on January 5 requesting the studio bring back support for the format. As of the time of this post, almost 14,000 people have signed the 'Save HD-DVD' petition. To quote in it's entirety:

Dear High Def movie fans, I'm starting this petition in order to support HD-DVD and hopefully save it, and to show Warner Brothers that the consumer has not "clearly" chosen Blu-Ray. Warner Brothers switched to Blu-Ray exclusive claiming that its the best thing for the consumer, but how about all the consumers that bought HD-DVD movies and hardware for the holidays, or all the loyal HD-DVD fans like myself that own Warner HD-DVDs? Warner just screwed them all.

HD-DVD is more alive than ever, with cheaper hardware prices, and better technological capabilities, both of which are better for the consumer. I guess Warner feel higher prices and less features are better. The only thing Blu-Ray has going for it is 20GB of extra storage space, and a big name like Sony backing it up. HD-DVD on the other hand has PIP, web-enabled features, in movie menus, and much more. And if extra space is needed, use another disc, big deal.

So please, sign this petition, and lets get as many votes as we can so we can hopefully change Warner's mind to return to being format neutral, or go HD-DVD exclusive. This would also show the remaining HD-DVD exclusive studios, Universal & Paramount, that HD-DVD still has supporters, thus they shouldn't switch to Blu-Ray. We have a chance to save a superior format from collapsing under the weight of the greedy Sony corporation and its inferior Blu-Ray format, let's do it!

Blu-ray fans have their own petitions going, the most notable being 'Let HD-DVD Die' which has collected 5,540 signatures so far.

Before You Buy A Blu-ray Player Read This

Been reading this week about the impending inevitable victory of Blu-ray Disc in the high definition marketplace? Hang on just a minute before you rush off to Best Buy. Impending changes to the specifications Blu-ray discs are authored to will cause problems for the current models of Blu-ray players. Ah, yes, let us count the ways early adopters get ripped off by changing specs.
Back in October it was reported that new Blu-ray titles from Fox produced to the current Blu-ray spec would just not play on many of the early players. Now the Blu-ray booth at CES last week said they cannot recommend any current Blu-ray player except for the PS3 due to upcoming changes to the spec. Yes, early adopters of Blu-ray will be left out in the cold when the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) introduces BD Profile 2.0. Unlike HD-DVD, which mandated these additional features from the beginning, the companies behind Blu-ray left these capabilities out to meet a lower price point.
What's worse is the attitude the BDA seems to have, which is 'you should have known.'

Representatives at the Blu-ray booth at CES told BetaNews that the PlayStation 3 is currently the only player they would recommend, due to upcoming changes to the platform. But Pioneer, Samsung, Panasonic and Sony have all been selling standalone Blu-ray players to customers.
In order to allay confusion, the BDA has adopted special labels that will be placed on Blu-ray movies. Those with a "Bonus View" sticker will require Profile 1.1 players, while those with "BD Live" will require Profile 2.0.
In addition, the BD-J interactivity layer, based on Java, has continued to evolve since the introduction of Blu-ray Profile 1.0. This means that early players may have a buggy implementation and perhaps more importantly, they are not powerful enough to play the latest films properly.
When BetaNews asked developers of BD Live whether they were concerned about a backlash from early adopters who supported the format from the beginning, we were told: "They knew what they were getting into."
BDA President Andy Parsons echoed that sentiment at the Blu-ray press conference Monday, telling BetaNews that it's normal for new technology to change and older hardware to become obsolete.

Yes, I'm sure some stickers on the packaging is going to eliminate any customer confusion over compatibility issues. Bottom line: HD-DVD was a completed spec ready for public release but Blu-ray disc was not. "We should have waited another year to introduce Blu-ray to the public, but the format war changed the situation," a Blu-ray developer said at CES last Monday.
I think the disclaimer that has started showing up in Blu-ray packaging is evidence of that. (see picture.)
And they wonder why people decide to stick with good old DVD...

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Where We Stand Today On HD Formats

Anyone keeping up with events this week as far as HD news is concerned knows that one week ago today, Warner Bros announced exclusive support for Blu-ray Disc as of June 2008. The studio had previously been format neutral, producing content on both HD formats. It will continue to release movies on HD-DVD through the end of May. This left only Paramount (who had just switched from format neutral to HD-DVD only in August) and Universal (who has always supported only HD-DVD) as studio supporters for the HD-DVD format. If you're not keeping score, this would mean as of June, 70% of Hollywood content would be on Blu-ray only, effectively sounding the death knell for HD-DVD.
There was CES fallout from the Warner announcement. The HD-DVD promo group actually canceled their big CES kickoff press conference/party where they were going to say how cool HD-DVD was, and 'wasn't it great we sold all those players over the holidays.' Toshiba had a sad little press conference on Monday wondering why Warner decided not to support their format anymore, and saying the HD-DVD format will be fine with only 30% of Hollywood backing it. Riight. The HD-DVD booth at CES was a little lonely compared to the non-stop partying going on the Blu-ray booth next door. Whose idea was it to put those two next to each other? By mid-show the HD-DVD booth was bribing visitors with free movies if you just came by and said hi. What a year to decide to not go to CES.
The internet has been rife with rumors and analyses this week about Paramount and Universal's support of HD-DVD. Both studios have announced continued support for the HD-DVD format with no 'current' plans to change. Industry press has revealed the following, however. Universal's exclusivity agreement with HD-DVD has ended, freeing it to support either both formats or Blu-ray alone. Paramount has an 'escape clause' in it's HD-DVD exclusivity agreement that apparently was triggered by Warner's Blu-ray decision. So either studio could begin publishing content on Blu-ray at any time.
So thats where we stand up to now. What's next? Stay tuned.

Paramount Denies Blu-ray Switch

It's been all over the internet today that Paramount has done a 180 and decided to drop the HD-DVD format in favor of Blu-ray. If this were true, Universal pictures would be the lone holdout studio keeping HD-DVD afloat. Paramount is officially denying this. "Paramount's current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format,'' Brenda Ciccone, a spokeswoman for Paramount, said in an e-mail today. This all started when Financial Times reported that Paramount was 'poised to drop HD-DVD.' They are stating Paramount can defect because a clause in its contract with the HD-DVD forum allows the studio to switch to Blu-ray if Warner Bros dropped its support of HD-DVD and are citing unnamed 'inside sources.'

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The Writing is on the Wall for HD-DVD

On what must be a sad day over at the HD-DVD camp, the group has canceled a press conference previously scheduled on the eve of the Consumer Electronics Show. From the email they sent out:

Based on the timing of the Warner Home Video announcement today, we have decided to postpone our CES 2008 press conference scheduled for Sunday, January 6th at 8:30 p.m. in the Wynn Hotel. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

We are currently discussing the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluating next steps. We believe the consumer continues to benefit from HD DVD's commitment to quality and affordability – a bar that is critical for the mainstream success of any format.

Toshiba, the main consumer electronics company behind HD-DVD has also chimed in on today's devastating news that Warner will be going Blu-ray exclusive in June 2008.

Toshiba is quite surprised by Warner Bros.' decision to abandon HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray, despite the fact that there are various contracts in place between our companies concerning the support of HD DVD. As central members of the DVD Forum, we have long maintained a close partnership with Warner Bros. We worked closely together to help standardize the first-generation DVD format as well as to define and shape HD DVD as its next-generation successor.

We were particularly disappointed that this decision was made in spite of the significant momentum HD DVD has gained in the US market as well as other regions in 2007. HD DVD players and PCs have outsold Blu-ray in the US market in 2007.

We will assess the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluate potential next steps. We remain firm in our belief that HD DVD is the format best suited to the wants and needs of the consumer."

Well, Toshiba, HD-DVD won't be for long. As of June when the Warner support goes Blu-ray exclusive, 70% of Hollywood content will be on Blu-ray only. In the meantime, with all the press reporting the Warner news, this will negatively impact HD-DVD player sales.
This effectively is the beginning of the end for HD-DVD. With only Paramount and Universal backing it, the HD-DVD format cannot last beyond the end of the year. Variety seems to agree, reporting "Warner's shift toward Blu-ray is expected to hasten the demise of HD DVD."

Warner Brothers Goes Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Well, this is pretty big news. Undoubtedly timed to coincide with the beginning of CES on Monday, Warner Brothers has officially announced exclusive support of the Blu-ray HD format.

In response to consumer demand, Warner Bros. Entertainment will release its high-definition DVD titles exclusively in the Blu-ray disc format beginning later this year, it was announced today by Barry Meyer, Chairman & CEO, Warner Bros. and Kevin Tsujihara, President, Warner Bros. Home Entertainment Group.

"Warner Bros.' move to exclusively release in the Blu-ray disc format is a strategic decision focused on the long term and the most direct way to give consumers what they want," said Meyer. "The window of opportunity for high-definition DVD could be missed if format confusion continues to linger. We believe that exclusively distributing in Blu-ray will further the potential for mass market success and ultimately benefit retailers, producers, and most importantly, consumers."

Warner Home Video will continue to release its titles in standard DVD format and Blu-ray. After a short window following their standard DVD and Blu-ray releases, all new titles will continue to be released in HD DVD until the end of May 2008.

“Warner Bros. has produced in both high-definition formats in an effort to provide consumer choice, foster mainstream adoption and drive down hardware prices,” said Jeff Bewkes, President and Chief Executive Officer, Time Warner Inc., the parent company of Warner Bros. Entertainment. “Today’s decision by Warner Bros. to distribute in a single format comes at the right time and is the best decision both for consumers and Time Warner.”

“A two-format landscape has led to consumer confusion and indifference toward high definition, which has kept the technology from reaching mass adoption and becoming the important revenue stream that it can be for the industry,” said Tsujihara. “Consumers have clearly chosen Blu-ray, and we believe that recognizing this preference is the right step in making this great home entertainment experience accessible to the widest possible audience."

This flips the market forces to the advantage of Blu-ray. The studios supporting each format were about even after the August defection of Paramount/Dreamworks over to HD-DVD. Now of all the major studios only Paramount/Dreamworks and Universal do not support Blu-ray.

Buyers Sitting Out the HD Format 'War'

Today the New York Times asks: What if nobody wins the high-definition DVD format wars? With no clear advantage for either format, except for the movie titles available on each, only 11 percent of current HDTV owners strongly intend to buy a Blu-ray or HD DVD player. Almost 75% of those (HDTV owners, mind you) surveyed say standard DVD is 'good enough.'
What the article doesn't bring out is that it is increasingly evident that both HD formats are competing against standard DVD, not each other. HDTV owners can walk into a Wal-Mart and buy a $29 HD-upconverting DVD player that will play ALL DVD movies from ALL studios and ALL the movies they currently own.
I predict neither format will reach mass acceptance while there are two of them, unless or until they reach the sub-$50 price point, as happened with DVD. By that time people will have moved on to downloading digital content, or continue to be satisfied with standard DVD.

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'Unbreakable' Blu-ray DRM Cracked Already

Remember the BD+ extra copy protection that was recently added to Blu-ray releases making them unplayable in the older players? Well it's now worthless. SlySoft, makers of AnyDVD, have released a new beta of their AnyDVD HD disc ripping application that it claims can successfully crack and allow users to copy Blu-ray discs protected by BD+ to their hard drive. The Blu-ray Disc Association has not yet commented on this, but it can't be happy. BD+ was touted as a key differentiator between it and HD DVD and with this announcement is made effectively worthless.

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New Report Confirms Consumer Indifference For HD Formats

Even though both Blu-ray and HD-DVD camps are pulling out the stops this holiday season with heavy marketing campaigns and price drops, new research just released shows only 24% of consumers even consider high-def packaged media when upgrading their home entertainment systems.
The report found that an abundant supply of standard DVD movies, compared to a relative limited number of titles in HD-DVD and Blu-ray, has resulted in little motivation among consumers to adopt.
Also, CE manufacturers are undermining the formats by providing low-cost HD upconverting DVD players.

“The real competitor that both of these formats face is not each other, but rather [these] low-cost DVD players … that pass the ‘good enough’ test for most consumers,” said Michael Gartenberg, VP, Jupiter Research and author of the report.

What have I been saying...
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New Blu-Ray Movies Not Playing on All Players

Remember when you could buy a movie or album and it would just work? The tape would play on your VCR, the record would play on your record player, the CD would play on your CD player and so on. Welcome to the new world of digital media, complicated by DRM. Although incompatibility issues were seen on a smaller scale with DVD, this is a case of discs produced to Blu-ray spec and not playing on existing Blu-ray players.
From ars technica: With the new generation of HD DVD and Blu-ray video players, however, this is the norm: firmware updates are to be expected because the players are constantly evolving and are built around a DRM scheme (AACS) that can be "updated" in the event that a hack is found.
This latest twist on HD media is concerning new releases from Fox Home Video that will either not play on some models, giving you the red screen of death seen here, will play after an incredible two-minute load time, or stutter during playback. It is not yet confirmed if the source of the problem in BD-Java or BD+, a DRM scheme that is only now being added to discs produced from Fox studios. Although BD+ was always part of the Blu-ray spec, no studio had yet included it on any release.
This is not the first time there have been compatibility issues due to copy protection. Back in April, Sony released DVD titles with additional ARccOS copy protection files which caused playback problems on some players, including Sony players.
At any rate, Fox is blaming the incompatibility to manufacturers not including the latest firmware updates available for their players when they are sold and instructs consumers to visit their manufacturers website to find out how to install the latest firmware on their Blu-ray player. The playback problems are reported to mainly be on LG and Samsung Blu-ray players.
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